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draghi-renzi

Today we follow-up with the fall out of the ITALIAN REFERENDUM. And once again, this situation, i.e. the NORMALIZATION PROCESS™ is by far the most important PROCESS that is taking place in Western Civilization, and I can’t emphasise this enough.

Back to ITALY… 

In yesterdays post, your humble blogger made the above calculated prediction: (see here)

With this result, it might be hard put together a coalition for Renzi with smaller parties in order to form a caretaker government to get them to the next scheduled elections. If the smaller parties enter into this coalition, they could get wiped out in a years time being part of a very unpopular government. Actually, same goes for Renzi’s Democratic Party. It is in the interest of these smaller parties to be in opposition. Therefore, the odds of early elections is increasing geometrically since it might be hard for Renzi, or whoever else (from the Renzi’s party, since they have a majority in the lower chamber) to form a stable government. So the only way forward might just be early elections. And that will take place in February of 2017 or three short months from now.

No more than 12 hours later, we get the following headline from our catholic Zero Hedge website:

italeave-i

The significance of this development is that if you dear reader will recall, the government that the Italian/European Union ESTABLISHMENT put in place after the overthrow of the Berlusconi government in 2011 lasted for over one year, until the next scheduled elections were held. By the time that year was over, the parties that supported the MONTI interim government effectively vanished from the political landscape of ITALY.

Today, we see the POLITICAL neo-Modernists not repeating this lesson. They are folding like cheap lawn chairs on the deck of the TITATNIC. Think Hollande (see here) But I digress…

So what we have is REASON reasserting itself in Italian POLITICS. This is in conformity with our 3rd Principle of the LEX ARMATICUS, namely:

3nd Principle: (The Schmidberger Principle)

Every abnormal situation inherently tends toward normalization. This is due to the nature of the matter.

And just to demonstrate how “ahead of the curve” we are on this blog, here is how Goldman Sachs saw the probability of the Italian political process going forward at the same time we were penning out calculate prediction of early elections as of 5 Dec, 2016 11:47 AM Eastern Time (see here)

italeave-ii

Folks, and I don’t even do this for a living. Maybe I should….

But back to the matter at hand. The question now is this: will the Jesuit trained Mario Draghi allow Renzi to bail, and leave him and the European Central Bank with a bunch of worthless Italian Government Obligations, and the irate Germans who will have to clean up the mess?

We will know shortly.

Anyways, here is the relevant post from Zero Hedge…

Euro, BTPs Hit On Local Reports Italy May Hold Early Elections

Update: it appears that early elections are indeed coming to Italy, which could be another major calendar event for Italy, and one which would have far more significant consequences for the political make up of the country should M5S win as many expect. From Reuters:

ITALY INTERIOR MINISTER, SPEAKING AFTER CONVERSATION WITH RENZI, SEES NEW ELECTIONS LIKELY IN FEBRUARY – CORRIERE DELLA SERA 

* * *

The Euro has been hit this morning, losing some 50 pips following reports in both La Repubblica and Corriere, that Matteo Renzi may stay in power for several weeks before potential early elections in January-February of 2017. According to La Repubblica, Renzi may ask that early elections are held in near future in return for staying in power until then. As previously reported, the next Italian general election must be held no later than 23rd May 2018. 

The move has pressured other Italian assets, with BTP futures retreating from highs and the Italian bank index paring gains as investors focus on potential for Italian elections to be held early next year.

However, there has been some confusion about the date of the snap elections, because President Mattarella reportedly doesn’t see elections in February technically feasible because changes are needed to the country’s election law known as Italicum.

There is another consideration: should snap elections be hald soon, they would likely lead to a victory for Italy’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement, which as noted on Sunday has already called for immediate elections after the outgoing prime minister Matteo Renzi’s defeat in a constitutional referendum, saying it was prepared to put forward a new government that could immediately assume power.

While it appears unlikely that Beppe Grillo, a former comedian and co-founder of the populist party, will get his general election wish, the bold demand showed his Movimento Cinque Stelle (M5S) now has its sights on an even greater electoral victory: one that would eventually land it in the prime minster’s residence in Palazzo Chigi.

As the Guardian reported, many analysts pointed out that M5S still faces considerable obstacles, including probable reforms of electoral law that will make it difficult for the party to get a majority. “But even if such manoeuvres keep it at bay temporarily, one thing is clear: the party is now the second most powerful force in Italy behind Renzi’s diminished Democratic party.”

Vincenzo Scarpetta, a senior policy analyst at the thinktank Open Europe, said M5S would have a fair chance of winning the next general election under current electoral rules, but those rules are likely to change in coming months under the current Democratic-controlled parliament, which may be the impetus behind delaying elections as much as possible, and why today’s report of early snap elections has led to Euro weakness.

The decision to call immediate elections ultimately falls with Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella.

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