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As most of my dear and loyal reader know by now, the empty suit that wears the name Emmanuel Macron has won the French presidential election. This will not come as a shock to my loyal readers since it was predicted by yours truly.
The primary reason for why your humble blogger did not predict a win for Marine Le Pen was due to the economic “specifics” of France. The primary motivating factor that Marine Le Pen had going against her was her overt antipathy toward the European Union. Actually, not the European Union per se, but rather the funding mechanism that divides the spoils of the main contributing nations, i.e. Germany and Great Britain. Spoils of which the French are major beneficiaries. Yes, it’s that “backward” French agricultural sector that needs to be subsidized in perpetuity. But I digress…
On an aside, Great Britain is negotiating their Brexit presently and once they are out, the EU will lose a net €10billion from the collective kitty. But I digress again…
So the dynamic that was at play in France was one similar to that which Ronald Reagan observed when he noticed that a recession is when your neighbor loses his job while a depression is when you lose your job. In that light, the French dynamic at play could be characterized as “recessions are acceptable”.
And that was a common thread in the comments that I have read, i.e. that no one was under the illusion that it would get better with Macron, as long as it did not get any worse. And Marine Le Pen did not read this mood too well and did not provide the electorate an alternative “election philosophy” of hope, one for which the French would want to make sacrifices. Anyways, I will have more to say on just this in the future.
So given the rationale above, this is how your humble blogger saw the French Presidential election of 2017 and wrote it down in three post under the following titles:
So today, I will do a debrief of how the second round voting transpired and a brief commentary about what can be expected to transpire in the country that used to be commonly referred to as the Church’s eldest daughter.
As to what you dear reader and the French citizenry can expect in the months ahead can be described as turbulence. The main cause for this turbulence is that the new French President does not have a political party in the current French parliament. Actually, President Macron is an empty suit that was created by the outgoing president François Hollande and Macron’s base was the socialist party headed by Hollande.
In order to fool the gullible voters, a “new” movement was created, a movement called the En Marche. The problem with this shell movement now, is that it has to transform itself into a political party. The problem becomes that if the En Marche becomes a political party, it will cannibalize the existing socialist party. And I don’t think that the socialists will allow that to happen.
What makes this situation even more comical is that the next parliamentary elections are in June of this year. Yes folks, a month from now. So what will have to happen in this month’s time is that the outgoing president Hollande will have to pull a sleight of hand and explain to the French that the shell movement En Marche is really the socialist party in disguise.
An alternative scenario is that Hollande will allow Macron to actually transform the shell movement into a political party. What this will do is break up the electorate even further and could allow for the “right” wing political forces to win the June election. And if that happens, then France goes into what is known as cohabitation where a leftist president rules with a right wing parliament and NOTHING HAPPENS for the next 4 years.
On the other hand, there are some that think a lot will happen… (see here).
I will stop here, but will have more to say in future posts.
Below I will reproduce a post from the blog GalliaWatch. It does a good job of explaining OBJECTIVE REALITY in France. I will reproduce the post below, while the original can be linked to here.
The final tally was Macron 65.5%, Marine Le Pen 34.5%. She doubled her father’s 2002 score. The abstention rate was 25%, higher than the first round. The legitimacy of the new president is already seriously compromised and could make a Macron sweep in the legislative elections difficult.
Estimate: 21 million votes for Macron. 11.4 million votes for Le Pen. 4 million blank/invalid votes.
Note: A blank vote is a clean ballot inside an envelope with no choice indicated; an invalid vote is a damaged ballot. These votes are not counted into the final tally. Why would someone turn in a blank ballot? Possibly because neither candidate is acceptable but the person wants to vote; possibly out of contempt; possibly to be a nuisance.
Emmanuel Macron remains below the 50% mark.
According to Marine Le Pen, those who supported Emmanuel Macron have been discredited. Henceforth, the Front National constitutes the only opposition force to the new president and she intends to lead the battle for the legislative elections in June. It is a choice between patriots and globalists that will be submitted to the French people, voting district by voting district. She has announced the transformation of the Front National into a new political force. They are speaking of a “Patriotic and Republican Alliance.”
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan will continue his alliance with Marine Le Pen but will not be part of the new movement. He will present candidates in every voting district for the legislative elections.
François Baroin of Les Républicains announced he will oppose the new president whom he supported…
Note: Baroin had hoped to be François Fillon’s prime minister. Baroin had been minister of Finance under Sarkozy. He voted for Macron, and has indicated he would like to be the opposition Prime minister in the event of victory of the right and center in the legislative elections. He is obviously very supple.
According to Laurent Wauquiez, president of the region Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and vice-president of Les Républicains:
“Emmanuel Macron is a president elected without enthusiasm. For the right, this is not the time to compromise.”
Note: I believe Wauquiez voted for Macron. He certainly did not vote for Marine. So he has not only compromised, he has collaborated.
According to estimates, 48% of François Fillon’s voters voted for Macron. 32% abstained or turned in blank or invalid ballots, and 20% voted for Le Pen.
Note: Fillon’s betrayal of Marine Le Pen and his support for Macron, and Marine’s poor performance in the debate, remain the two outstanding calamities of the election (besides the presence of Macron himself).
Photo above: Macron’s France. We see the Algerian flag, the crowds at the Louvre, and a journalist.
LSB readers comments:
– I hope Marine understands that 2017 was for her the equivalent of 2002 for her father and that she will never obtain a large vote. Her nullity was displayed in the debate; her aggressiveness and her hysteria caused her to go from 40/41% to 35% in four days. She should leave the presidency of the FN.
– “You wanted to avoid war at the cost of dishonor. You will have dishonor and you will have war.”
– We await with great interest the invalidation of this election. That would be the case in a democracy.
Note: Both Macron and Hollande obtained less than 50% of the votes of registered voters.
– Anti-Macron demonstrations in all the big cities tonight; vandalism and violence go on, the taxpayers pay!
– When will the Conference of Bishops of France become the Great Lodge of Bishops of France? They can go to Soros for their donations.
– I was struck by Macron’s victory speech. The poor fellow was pale, without composure, almost inaudible. He repeated clichés that expressed his love for France. Pathetic, and troubling. Marine is better when she is calm. Her strategy for the next five years is rather convincing.
– Congrats to all the cowards who chose Macron.
– Marine Le Pen should leave the FN and Asselineau should replace her. Just in debating alone, he would have flattened Macron! He would not have mixed things up as Marine did with the euro. Marine does not have the intelligence of a president.
Note: François Asselineau, a highly effective speaker, and right-wing politician, received few votes in the first round.
– At the end of the debate between Hollande junior and Marine Le Pen, I found that Marine had dominated the debate… After two days of media commentary I almost began to have doubts.
From Le Salon Beige.