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Over the past couple of weeks, your humble blogger has been quiet.
The reason being, that there was insufficient evidence as to the state of play to make an educated OBSERVATION.
As you dear readers are very well aware of, there was a “good” case that could have been made for the draconian reaction to the Chinese Virus and there was a GOOD case that could have been made that the DRACONIAN REACTION was not OBJECTIVELY REAL.
So how does this “discernment” work in practice, you might ask dear and loyal reader?
Quite simply as follows: while a good case can be made that the real danger of the Chinese Virus is that it could flood the health care system in a given country, the reality appears to be such that a sizeable number of… let’s call them the “principle actors” don’t seem to be too concerned about… well… flooding the health care system of the given country.
So why is this important?
Well because it appears that the anti-malaria drug shows signs of being very effective against the Chinese Virus.
So the question then becomes, is the Nevada Democrat Governor mad?
Well, that very well could be, but this is not the base assumption that a rational analysis of the situation would call for.
Therefore, the question becomes: is there any other EVIDENCE that could point us toward which one of the opposing positions could be considered to be closer to the OBJECTIVE REALITY of the situation.
The next critical piece of information comes via the financial markets.
The reason why this information can be seen as veracious is simply that it really affects the greatest number of people. In other words, it does not affect only the roughly 20% of the population that could be susceptible to the Chinese Virus.
Given the above, and looking at the below screen shot, we can see that the leadership in Washington, or at least that part of the leadership that has been… shall we say… exaggerating the impact of the spread of the Chinese Virus among a given countries population, is in fact not too concerned about the ramifications that this spread will have on the financial markets, i.e. on the given populations financial well being. (see here)
Now this is not a “consumptionist” view but rather a… shall we say… an “essentialist” view. In other words, people need to eat (2000 calories per day) and drink (one quart of water per day). And one way in which to deprive the general population of food and drink is to close the country down which would restrict the population from working and earning funds needed to acquire above said “food and drink”.
So now that the table is set… excuse the pun… we go to the next piece of EVIDENCE here:
Furthermore, it is these same parties that stalled the economic relief bill that was passed by the Senate this past weekend, loading it with “features” that have very little to do with… well… providing economic relief to those individuals and families that have no mean with which they can support themselves in the current situation.
Furthermore, the “seriousness” of the situation can be inferred from the following headline and CONTENT here:
Therefore, from the EVIDENCE presented above, it would appear that the more accurate approach to the Chinese Virus is that the DRACONIAN REACTION to the Chinese Virus is not in line with the OBJECTIVELY REALITY, as EVIDENCED by that part of the political class that has been the proponent of the DRACONIAN REACTION.
Now don’t get me wrong, dear and loyal reader. The issue is very serious in that this Chinese Virus is something that we haven’t really seen before. The uniqueness of this situation is that two virus’ (the SAR’s and HIV-1) have been engineered into a manmade virus that did not exist in nature.
Regardless what the “Virologist of Rome” with the intelligence of a Pachamama figurine thinks… (see here)
Yes folks, he really is that stupid…
… and once again: Post-modernism is a rebellion against COMPETENCE!
But I digress…
So summing up the above, what can be said is as follows:
- The Chinese Virus is very dangerous, much more dangerous that a common cold or the flu.
- The danger lies in the fact that this virus is man-made, therefore we had no way of knowing how it eventually could spread through the general population.
- Furthermore, there are no known antidotes, so introducing the Chinese Virus into the general population and allowing it to spread unabated in a given country is not a smart thing to do.
Having said the above however, what we do know about the Chinese Virus is that it does not appear to be the “son of the Black Death” that it has been and still is being billed out to be by certain sectors of our population. Neither does it appear to have the potential to kill 20% of the population.
Furthermore, the reaction of shutting down the entire economy appears to have been an overreaction driven by fear and ignorance…
… not to mention MALICE!
And it is the MALICE part that is really unforgiveable…
… outside of an environment with an ordained priest with jurisdiction, whether ordinary or supplied!
Ending, this humble blogger will republish a Zero Hedge post explaining what the OBJECTIVE REALITY behind the Chinese Virus appears to be… given the state of our OBJECTIVE KNOWLEDGE at present.
Stay safe, don’t be a COVIDIOT, but don’t PANIC!
“We’re going to be fine.”
Michael Levitt, a Stanford biophysicist who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2013, has made a bold statement that the end of COVID-19 pandemic could be near and has cited China’s curve flattening to support his hypothesis, reported the Los Angeles Times.
Levitt is now predicting a curve flattening in infections could be around the corner for the US as strict social distancing measures are being implemented across major metro areas.
“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”
Levitt accurately forecasted the deceleration in confirmed cases and deaths in early February in China. He said the initial infection rate in China’s Hubei province was 30% per day, but on February 7, something changed:
“The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop,” Levitt said. “A week later, the same happened with the number of deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China would improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”
Levitt reviewed data from 78 countries that reported more than 50 new confirmed cases of the virus per day and said he notices deceleration in many of these countries. He said he’s not focused on overall cases or deaths but rather on growth rates:
“Numbers are still noisy, but there are clear signs of slowed growth.”
He said in South Korea, confirmed cases are still being reported daily, though, in recent weeks, new cases per day have inched below 200, suggesting the outbreak is slowing.
Levitt said recent trends in confirmed cases in Iran point to a slowdown. He said it suggests the outbreak there “is past the halfway mark.”
Italy is still in an acceleration period, he noted. Cases and deaths have been exponential in the last several weeks. However, 15 days since the countrywide lockdown began, it appears the halfway point could be nearing, as per the chart shown below by Nordea:
Levitt has gone on the record to say that the virus outbreak could disappear from China by the end of March.
He said most individuals are immune to COVID-19 and pointed out that only 20% of the passengers on the Diamond Princess contracted the infection.
Levitt said when countries unite behind a common goal of stamping out the virus, through mass quarantines, social distancing, working from home, closing education systems, limiting businesses from operating, and banning mass gatherings, the infection curve tends to flatten out.
As other researchers are calling for the virus to be sticking around for months, or even years, it appears Levitt is making a bold prediction that the worst could be soon over for many regions of the world.
We must note that the Spanish flu occurred over a series of waves.
When it comes to the US, cases and deaths are exponential at the moment, and as soon as social distancing kicks in, the curve could start flattening. Still, it’s anyone’s guess when that will occur.
As for buying the corona-dip in the stocks, Bill Ackman was heard on Monday as saying, “We are all long, no shorts, you know, ‘betting on the country.
“I built a lot of confidence over the last week that the president and his team are heading in the right direction,” Ackman said, adding that he had no ‘inside knowledge’ of any administrative decision.