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Today we return to the POLITICAL sub-set of the et Invisibilium and France. To be more precise, the upcoming presidential election in Francis this coming May. I have not been writing about this upcoming event since I am at a loss to gauge how this election will play itself out.
The reason why the French presidential election is so hard to predict is that there is what can be called a “black swan” candidate. The term “black swan event” can be defined as follows: (see here)
theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying which presumed black swans did not exist, but the saying was rewritten after black swans were discovered in the wild.
The reason that there is a “black swan event” transpiring in France is that one of the favorites, namely Marine Le Pen is a candidate that is outside the French political establishment. What makes Le Pen a “black swan candidate” is that if she wins, she will most likely transform not only the political landscape in France, but in Euroland likewise.
Le Pen’s candidacy is being opposed by the entire French establishment since if she wins, she has pledged that she will hold a referendum about France’s position in the European Union and to take France out of the single currency, the Euro. If this happens, it will cause a re-pricing of all government debt issued by the French government and create losses that the European Central Bank will have to realize. The realization of the losses by the European Central Bank will create disintegration of what is known as the European experiment and lead to a major economic recession in Germany. And that is putting it mildly.
And just to finish the story, as we all know, any economic turbulence in Germany will ripple through what is known as their “soft power” operations by which they fund various sorts of “initiatives” outside of Germany. This naturally has a direct impact also on the German taxpayer and in turn the amount of funds collected by the German government under the notorious KIRCHENSTEUER. (see here)
Or as Zero Hedge commented:
(…) Le Pen’s FN party has warned it would take France out of the Eurozone, return to the French franc, and would redenominate billions in French debt, a step which leading economists and rating agencies last week declared would to “massive sovereign default” and global financial chaos.
Below is the latest news and projections from the Zero Hedge website that I am republishing for your information. (see here)
Selling Of French Bonds Accelerates As Le Pen Extends Lead, Macron Tumbles In Latest Poll
Another day, another headache for owners of French bonds. In the latest French presidential poll, conducted by Elabe for TV broadcaster BFMTV, Marine Le Pen extended her lead by another 2-3 points, while support for her primary centrist challenger Emmanuel Macron, tumbled by 5 points in the last week.
The poll, released today, showed that Le Pen’s lead rose by either 1.5 points to 27% or by 2 points to 28%, depending whether centrist candidate Francois Bayrou would take part in the election…
… or withdraw.
The most surprising result, however, is the plunge in Macron’s odds, who lost five points in the first round voting intentions compared to the same poll conducted two weeks ago. Macron, who is the former French economy minister and who is running on a pro-EU platform, fell to third place behind right-wing candidate Francois Fillon, whom he eclipsed earlier in the month after a major embezzlement scandal erupted in which Fillon was accused of using public funds to pay for his family’s wages. Fillon gained 3 points in both variations of the poll.
But more concerning for her opponents, was the notable gains Le Pen made in the second round, where while still trailing behind both Fillon and Macron, she has seen a 4 points gain in the past week, shrinking the difference between Macron in the runoff round to 59-41. Until several weeks ago, she was firmly in the 20% range.
Meanwhile, as we have observed virtually every single day in the past three weeks, the better Le Pen does the polls, the higher French yields rise, and the greater the spread to German bunds….
… over fears that a Le Pen victory would be the last nail in the coffin for the Eurozone. Le Pen’s FN party has warned it would take France out of the Eurozone, return to the French franc, and would redenominate billions in French debt, a step which leading economists and rating agencies last week declared would to “massive sovereign default” and global financial chaos.
UPDATE 09:50 22 February 2017
Headline just out: Bayrou drops from race. Throws support behind Macron. So the second screen shot above is actual as of now.
Comment: This early exist by Bayrou means that the French Establishment is scared. Panicked maybe. This is a big plus for MLP and means that she is close in the internal polls.