As Goes Deutsche Bank, So Goes FrancisChurch… w/Update

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This could be the beginning of the end for the Francis pontificate and the entire Novus Ordo sect that has “subsisted” inside the Catholic Church since the coming to power of the Ioannian/Pauline papal line.

As has been explained in numerous posts (I will link later when time permits – time permits – see here and here and here) the entire edifice of the NUChurch is built on German funding and the Kirchensteuer Tax. Just as a quick reminder, the only “crime” for which someone can get excommunicated in Germany is for not paying into the Kirchensteuer.

The Kirchensteuer, since it is a tax collected at source (from the wages of the Kirchensteuer payee pool) is directly dependent on the state of the German economy. In other words, if wages increase of the German workforce, so does the German Church’s income derived from the tax.

Over the last 10 17 years (how time flies!), or over the course of the existence of the Euro currency, the German economy has been doing very well. By cannibalizing the production assets of the remaining Euroland countries sharing the common currency, the German economic performance has been nothing short of stellar over the 10 17 year life of the single currency. This explains in total the reason why the income flowing into the German Bishops’ coffers has been increasing at the same time that the German Church membership has been atrofying. 

Think about that for a minute or two.

Which brings us to the republished post below via the “c”atholic ZeroHedge website. (see here) In a post titled A Crashing Deutsche Bank Scrambles To Assure Markets That It Is “Fine”, ZeroHedge brings us news of the beginning of the end of Deutsche Bank. As you dear reader will recall, your humble blogger uses Deutsche Bank as a proxy for the performance of the German economy. To be more precise, one can easily say that Deutsche Bank IS the German economy. I will say more about this in a future post, but for the time being, what is important to understand is that as goes Deutsche Bank, goes the German economy. (This is due to most German/EU commercial funding being done via banks since the debt market is rather undeveloped.) And as goes the Germany economy, goes the Kirchensteuer. And as goes the Kirchensteuer, goes all the heretical operations that the German Bishops’ Conference funds via the Kirchensteuer income.

THEREFORE as goes the Kirchensteuer, goes the NUChurch.

I will end here but please keep that thought in your mind while reading the below….

PS In the chart above, I have provided a visual depiction of Deutsche Bank’s off balance sheet exposure as opposed to the Gross Domestic Product’s of the EU economy and the German economy. It is on chart you dear reader need to get familiar with so that you can “discern” the real “God of surprises” when he makes His appearance.

 

FOR THE RECORD

A Crashing Deutsche Bank Scrambles To Assure Markets That It Is “Fine”

With Deutsche Bank stock plunging to fresh all time lows in early trading after Merkel reportedly ruled out state aid the embattled German lender, the bank found itself in the unenviable position of once again having to defend its balance sheet to avoid further stock price declines, especially as doubts mounted if the German government response was due to a pre-emptive request for aid.  DB quickly tried to squash such speculation when a bank spokesman said that  “CEO John Cryan at no point asked the German Chancellor for the government to intervene in the U.S. Justice Department’s mortgages case.”

He added that Deutsche Bank will solve its problems without relying on help from Berlin, Germany’s flagship lender said on Monday.

The market remains unconvinced: shares in Germany’s biggest bank hit a record low of 10.62 euros on Monday…

… with its default risk once again spiking.

Naturally, DB had no option but to project confidence: “Deutsche Bank is determined to resolve its challenges on its own,” the spokesman said. “There is currently no question of a capital increase. We are meeting all regulatory requirements,” the spokesman added. Cryan and Merkel met in July to discuss Brexit repercussions but did not touch on the matter of potential help with U.S. legal proceedings, a person close to the matter said according to Reuters.

That said, the sellside suspects that a new capital raise appears inevitable. Analysts at Mediobanca said that a rights issue looked inevitable.  “John Cryan always said that a rights issue would only be triggered by a larger-than expected litigation charge and it appears increasingly likely that Deutsche Bank investors will be asked to post bail for Deutsche’s past crimes,” they said in note on Monday.

Meanwhile, the defense continued after Jorg Eigendorf, head of communications at Deutsche Bank told CNBC, that Deutsche bank liquidity position is very comfortable, adding that the credit portfolio is very strong, while the “liquidity position very comfortable, third quarter almost over and I can tell you that we are fine and very comfortable here.”

Touching on the stock price, Eigendorf said that the “share price is low but that is not what is worrying us and that is not what we are looking at. What is really important to us is our credit story which is very strong, it is fundamentally strong.”

If only the market agreed.

But perhaps the most sober – and realistic – assessment came from Andreas Utermann, Allianz Global Investors’ chief investment officer, who said on BBG TV that Germany would ultimately help out a struggling Deutsche Bank: “I don’t buy at all what’s coming out of Germany in terms of Germany not wanting to step in ultimately if Deutsche Bank was really in trouble.”

“Deutsche Bank is “too important for the German economy.” The bank’s tussle with the U.S. Department of Justice over a potential $14 billion legal settlement is “a political issue which will get resolved at a lower price,” he said in an interview with Francine Lacqua and Tom Keene on Monday.

The only question is just how will Germany, which has been so staunchly against an Italian bailout of its own insolvent banks, will i) pass such a deal with popular sentiment strongly against more bank bailouts and ii) what will a bailout look like: with €162 billion in debt and only €17 billion in equity, the government check would be substantial. And that, of course, excludes the €42 trillion in gross notional exposure which few if any have been willing to discuss in recent weeks.

UPDATE 10:25 26th of September 2016

An old rule of thumb in the financial markets states that: one should never believe a rumor until it has been officially denied.

As rumor had it, Deutsche Bank reached out to the German government for a pre-emptive request for aid.

Today, we have the official denial. It, along with commentary comes via ZeroHedge and reads as follows (see here):

“When it’s important, you have to lie,” is the now well-known mantra from European leaders when the crisis hit. So when a German politician proclaims “you can’t compare Deutsche Bank with Lehman. The bank is in a position to get out of this situation on its own,” it’s time to panic. Just a week after the 8th anniversary of Lehman‘s collapse, the multi-trillion dollar derivative book of Deutsche Bank dwarfs that of Lehman… and the credit markets are starting to wake up again.

And just so that we are all aware of the seriousness of the situation, another price chart, this time Deutsche Bank and Lehman Bro. side by side:

And one more tid bit of information that we Catholics should be aware of is here.

Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch!