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For those not old enough to remember the above posted ELECTORAL MAP, it is the final ELECTORAL MAP of the 1980 Presidential Campaign. In that campaign, Ronald Reagan defeated a sitting, one term president, namely James Earl “Jimmy” Carter in what turned out to be a landslide defeat for the incumbent. A landslide election that nobody saw coming. (see here)
The reason that I am bringing this to your attention is that this blogger… excuse me… this most humble blogger, has sufficient grounds (OBJECTIVE) to believe that the presidential election that will commence tomorrow will have a similar result.
So below, I will provide a list of “adjustments” that this humble blogger thinks should have been taken into account by the POLLSTERS and try to provide a quantitative figure to see how much of an effect it could have on this upcoming election.
But before we do that, the OBJECTIVE BASE LINE ASSUMPTIONS are provided below.
OBJECTIVE BASE LINE ASSUMPTIONS
And once again, the BASE LINE ASSUMPTION are those that appear on Mundabor’s post titled Polls Adjusted For Sanity. (see here) In that post, we are provided with the figures for the ELECTORAL COLLEGE vote taken from an average of the GALLUP ADJUSTED breakdowns:
The last row contains the averages (once again – ADJUSTED), and provides us with our BASE LINE ASSUMPTION VALUES for the ELECTORAL COLLEGE: namely Trump 336 vs. Sick, Crooked, Unelectable Hillary 202.
So let’s pull up an interactive ELECTORAL MAP and see how these figures look in terms of STATES:
Now folks, this is an ELECTORAL MAP that I have constructed just on the basis of the AVERAGES that have been published by GALLUP, adjusted for a more realistic breakdown of demographics, as they appear on Mundabor’s blog.
Now as you can see, the case for this ELECTION unfolding along the lines of the manner in which the 1980 ELECTION unfolded is indeed a very strong one.
So that is the OBJECTIVE figures and representations.
And now for the SUBJECTIVE Analysis.
As I mentioned earlier, I have identified a LIST of “adjustments” that should have been incorporated into BASE LINE ASSUMPTIONS in order to provide a better depiction of what is in fact OBJECTIVE REALITY.
Let’s start with the:
(1) Black Dissatisfied Voter EFFECT : This is a catch all category that is comprised of two elements. First is the necessary adjustment for the fact that Sick Hillary is not Obama and is not Black ( White vote for SickHillary is 42% and return pre-2008 levels would give .63% less nationally (see here). The second element is that SickHillary has not been able to MOTIVATE the Black Vote. (7.5% reduction from 2012 level = 1% nationwide – here) We see anecdotal evidence of just this with respect to 1) free concerts given by Black CELEBRITARDS, 2) the Lady-Boy “Black” Obama actively berating African Americans for not being ENTHUSIASTIC about SickHillary. According to Breitbart, who has provided an estimation, this Dissatisfied Black EFFECT could be up as high as 2% points in the election.
So let’s place this EFFECT at a plus 2% (whole numbers) for Trump.
(2) Pissed Off Millennial EFFECT : This is the category that catches the reduction (increase) for SickHillary, in VOTER turnout among the Millennials in general, and specifically among the young Bernie Sanders voters. (Once I find figures, will put up)
(3) Biting Ones Nose to Spite Ones Face: This category captures the reduction (increase) in Voter turnout for the SickHillary due to the bad economic situation (Work Force Participation Rate) and increases in household expenses (ObamaCare is the big one here). (Once I find figures, will put up)
(4) Open Borders EFFECT : This is huge in the border states such as AZ and NM. It can also come into play in Southern California, where the larger population centers are located. (Once I find figures, will put up)
In addition to the above generally known EFFECTS, I have also identified some PRORIETARY EFFECTS through the Peirce/Ockham Pragmatic Methodology. Here is the list below:
(1) Spent CELEBRITARD EFFECT: This is the observed effect where even with A-List performers (especially Black performers) Sick Unelectable Hillary could NOT outdraw The Donald. We established that the MAXIMUM crowd for one of these MIXED Music/Political events is between 10,000 and 11,000 attendees.
(2) Long VOTER Lines EFFECT: If the turnout is YUGE, there will be a negative VOTING incentive, i.e. to not stand in line to cast a vote for SickHillary. This is on account of the ENTHUSIASM GAP.
(3) CALIFORNIA/NEW YORK/ BIG STATE EFFECT: This EFFECT has to do with the percentage of the BIG STATE votes that are represented in the national polls. In other words, a big state like CA (were Clinton has a 6 point lead – GALLUP), where the voting distribution is radically skew toward one candidate, will CORRUPT the VOTING TOTALS for the rest of the smaller states in the national figures. Remember, the ELECTORAL VOTE is allocated by the winner in the individual states. So a 6 point advantage in CA actually works to the detriment of SickHillary since she can’t “EXPORT” those votes across state lines. (I should say “yet” since google is working on an app to do just that).
(4) HIDDEN Trump-o-crats EFFECT: What this EFFECT pertains to is that regardless of how many VOTERS with declared party affiliations cast VOTES (early VOTING as an example) the BALLOTS are opened on ELECTION day. So here we try to capture some of the increase in Black VOTES for Trump since he could get as much as 20% in this election cycle.
(5) SickHillary vs. Jimmy Carter EFFECT: Here I try to capture the difference in VOTES cast for Jimmy Carter, who lost due to his INCOMPETANCE, while SickHillary is mostly known for her CORRUPTION. Given a very similar economic environment/feeling (economic stagnation) to the one that was in place in mid 1980, it would appear logical to assume that SickHillary would get less VOTES (smaller percentage) than Carter did in 1980.
(6) Idealistic “liberal”/Ashamed of Hillary EFFECT: This EFFECT is similar to Millennial EFFECT but for older demographics.
(7) Playing defense EFFECT: SickHillary, due to spending so much time in bed/gurney/resting, is in essence playing defence. The strategy, as per WikiLeaks was to put out a FALSE NARRATIVE that Hillary has it in the bag. So what we are seeing now is slippage in ELECTORAL VOTES for SickHillary in the PRESSTITUTE media.
(8) EXCESS CORRUPTION EFFECT: This is the part of the Idealistic “liberal” EFFECT but extended out to the INDEPENDANT VOTERS.
(9) Lady-Boy Barry 5th Column EFFECT: This is the part of the OPEN BORDERS EFFECT that is extended to the general US population. Especially those in the sanctuary cities and states that are taking in ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS.
(10) REVERSE THUMPING HILLARY EFFECT: This is the observation that there are many people who might just want to go out to the POLLS to put SickHillary in jail. The PHENOMENON to beat up on SickHillary when she’s down is the exact STRATEGY devised by TeamClinton to demoralize the Trump supporters. We on this blog call it WEAPONIZING DESPONDANCE.
The above list is by no means complete. These Intangibles were identified just by collecting DATA POINTS, which then were grouped and resulting categories arose. These categories were then “distilled” to create the EFFECT’S LIST.
Oh, and one more thing. I could not find a “set” of DATA POINTS that could have identified a similar EFFECT for the Donald. The best shot was the #NeverTrump crowd , yet they seemed to have melted away. You got to wonder how real it was…
So where does that leave us. If we place a quantitative values, even fractional values, sum up these EFFECTS, and then incorporate them (adjust to POLL figures) into the breakdown by STATE, we see how big of a CUMMULATIVE EFFECT would be needed to flip any particular state from Sick Hillary to Trump.
Here is the Gallup LIST: (see here)
What should be of interest is that with just the first EFFECT we identified (and have obtained quantitative data from a “third party”) we see that a 2% point swing, if that would be a representative figure for let’s say, California, would give The Donald that state. Here is how the math would works: -3.4% at present – with 2% increase for The Donald/2% decrease for SickHillary, The Donald would be +0.6 and take the 55 ELECTORAL VOTES.
I will leave off here for now.
Will come back with more in this thread, so check back every now and then…